Two Buttons You Shouldn't Hit - Panic & Snooze

Scott Poore

Jul 31

6 min read

It would have been easy for investors to hit the panic button after growth and momentum stocks have suffered a historic sell off. However, the market seems to have

settled down since the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Instead of panicking, investors may consider a longer-term perspective while economic fundamentals remain strong. This week's musings are inspired by the hit television show "Ted Lasso," which is coming back in August for a 4th season. Ted doesn't like to hit the panic or snooze button, according to the show. Here is some trivia about the show:

The show was a surprise hit. Shortly after Season 1 was finished, the show was picked up for two more seasons. In 2023, the show was the most-streamed original series that year. This was Apple's most-watched show of all-time until "Severance" overtook it in 2025.
Jason Sudeikis, who plays Ted Lasso, said his own situation paralleled Lasso's. Sudeikis was going through a breakup with Olivia Wilde when he was awarded the character of Lasso and filming began in England. He said it helped him move on from the relationship.
Brett Goldstein, who plays Roy Kent, was hired as a writer for the show. When the initial script was complete, Goldstein decided to audition for the role of Kent, whom he identified with and won the part.
The series is inspired by the true story of American football coach Terry Smith who managed an English soccer/futbol team. He had no prior knowledge of soccer when accepting the job and tried to adapt American football tactics in their game.
According to Namerology, the number of American babies named Jamie, Roy, Richmond, and Keely rose in 2021 during season 2 of the show.

Here's what we've seen so far this week...

Be A Goldfish. Sometimes investors and the Fed need to adopt one of Ted Lasso's philosophies on life - be a goldfish. In season 1 of "Ted Lasso," he tells a player after practice to forget about the mistake he made. He says, "You know what the happiest animal on the Earth is? It's a goldfish. You know why? It's got a 10-second memory. Be

a goldfish." The Fed left rates unchanged at Wednesday's meeting - a decision in our view that should not have been as heavily debated as it was in the media.1 Inflation is following a similar pattern this year as it did in 2021-2022 with regard to the 5-year Inflation Breakeven Rate. The breakeven rate is calculated by subtracting the interest rate on 5-year Treasury bonds from the real rate on 5-year TIPs. Since it peaked in May, the 5-year Inflation Breakeven Rate has plummeted and the Consumer Price Index along with it. Yesterday, we learned that the PCE Price Index, another measure of inflation, also dropped in June.2 The Fed would have faced a flurry of questions if they chose to raise rates while inflation is declining.

The market is still trying to adapt to a Fed with fewer projections and a lack of hints as to future rate decisions. That being said, Fed Chairman Warsh's comments following the FOMC meeting conclusion on Wednesday were taken as largely dovish. According to financial columnist Mike Zaccardi, Warsh alluded to other ways to affect inflation outside of changing interest rates.3 Zaccardi noted that Warsh's comments were

highlighted by the following: that the Fed should look beyond standard inflation measures, could use non-rate tools to fight inflation, and that the market was already doing the Fed's work to some degree.3 And yet, about three-quarters through his speech, despite equities moving higher in response to Warsh's dovish comments, the market began to quickly sell off - ultimately dropping more than 1.5% by market close. However, if we look at the NYSE Tick Index, we see dramatic price activity indicative of algos and/or programmatic selling.4 When the NYSE Tick Index moves from a lofty +900 position to -900 position in a relatively short period of time (typically late afternoon into the market close), it may indicate increased algorithmic or program trading activity leading to the decline. In fact, markets responded to the upside on Thursday once investors ingested the dovish stance of the Fed, at least for now. Like the temporary rise in inflation and the temporary decline in equities, investors and the Fed sometimes need to remember the goldfish.

Be Curious, Not Judgmental. Another one of Ted Lasso's philosophies on life, which the show incorrectly attributes to Walt Whitman, is to "be curious, not judgmental." Ted utters this when he beats Rupert in a game of darts with a wager on the line. Investors should adopt this philosophy, especially in the difficult trading year that 2026 has turned

out to be. The different styles of equity investing - growth and value - have been at significant odds at different times this year.5 Growth and momentum stocks took off to start the year, but the onset of the U.S.-Iran war sent markets into risk-off mode helping value stocks to win the first quarter. With a memorandum of understanding in place on the war front, risk assets took off again helping growth stocks to out-pace value stocks in the 2nd quarter. So far, in the 3rd quarter, value stocks are more than doubling the return of growth stocks. This has made it a difficult year to trade for investors with select stocks and sectors moving in and out of favor depending upon the risk appetite of the week.

It's always important to look at all of the information when judging a strategy or money manager. The back-and-forth of investing styles and risk-on/risk-off turbulence of the markets this year has made life difficult for professional money managers. The

emergence of the 24-hour news cycle, social media, and most recently, 24-hour trading in the markets has caused investors to become so short-sighted, they are willing to toss aside established money managers. Investing gurus such as Warren Buffet and the Carlyle Group have a long-term history of performing well against the S&P 500 Index, but year-to-date are lagging the benchmark. This has less to do with their financial acumen and more to do with the topsy-turvy nature of market sentiment in 2026. Investors may benefit more by maintaining a long-term investing approach instead of worrying about a single quarter or two of performance.

Believe. Ted Lasso's ultimate philosophy, especially when it comes to coaching AFC Richmond is for the team to simply believe - believe in themselves, in the team, and the coaching strategy. When markets are turbulent like they have been so far in 2026, part of believing is looking at the fundamental data that is less emotional and more factual.

Sometimes, though, the factual data needs a second look when drawing conclusions. Recent declines in the Redbook Sales (year-over-year sales for over 9,000 retailers) might cause one to be concerned. The growth in Redbook Sales peaked at 11.5% at the beginning of July, but has declined to 8.3% as of this week.6 However, if we look at the primary cause, the numbers make sense. The U.S. played host to the World Cup this summer (Ted Lasso would be so proud) with an estimated 1 million foreign travelers coming to the U.S. for the matches.7 According to Visa, international and domestic spending surged 20% this year in cross-border transactions.8 And yet, with the World Cup having concluded over two weeks ago, Redbook Sales are still well above the historical average, indicating that the U.S. consumer may be continuing to spend even after the effects of the World Cup.

Another metric that bears scrutiny was this week's release of 2nd quarter GDP, which disappointed expectations coming in at +1.5% versus +2.1%.9 However, it wasn't the consumer that slowed down. The likely culprit were tariffs and the war as businesses drew down inventories and tried to get goods into the country before a new wave of

expected tariffs.10 So, while consumer spending was up +3.2%, Private Inventories and Net Exports were down.10 If we look at the weekly measure of economic growth, as represented by the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Index, the economy appears to be on a growth trend unlike past recessionary trends.11 Financial planning and a long-term investment strategy could prove a better approach than responding too quickly to changes in market sentiment that may seem to shift as the wind blows.

Click here to watch one of my favorite Ted Lasso scenes.....

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Disclosures

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The opinions expressed are those of the author, are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The decision to review or consider the purchase or sell of any security should not be undertaken without consideration of your personal financial information, investment objectives and risk tolerance with your financial professional.

Forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

Any market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

Past Performance does not guarantee future results.

Two Buttons You Shouldn't Hit - Panic & Snooze

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