More Than A Day

As is typical this time of year, we realize how much we have to be thankful for in a great business and a great firm. From the KEAP/SEAM team, we wish you a Happy Thanksgiving with a quick poem and some things to watch in a holiday-shortened week of trading.

More Than A Day

As Thanksgiving Day rolls around,

It brings up some facts, quite profound.

We may think that we're poor,

Feel like bums, insecure.

But in truth, our riches astound.

We have friends and family we love;

We have guidance from heaven above.

We have so much more

Than they sell in a store.

We're wealthy, when push comes to shove.

So add up your blessings, I say;

Make Thanksgiving last more than a day.

Enjoy what you've got;

Realize it's a lot.

And you'll make all your cares go away.

By Karl Fuchs

Here are a few things to keep an eye on this week:

• Breadth - the Zweig Breadth Thrust dropped below 40 on November 20th of last week. If it reaches 61 by the end of trading Friday, the ZBT will have triggered indicating more upside in the market. When it triggers, the S&P 500 Index has been higher 1 month later at least 94% of the time, with an average return of +4.8%. The current level of the ZBT is 50.

• Inflation - the PPI number for September was finally released. August's reading of +2.6% was revised higher to +2.7%, while the September figure stayed flat at +2.7%. Tomorrow will see the release of September's PCE Price Index. The previous reading was +2.7%, so it will be interesting to see how much the September figure rises and how that affects the probability of a December rate cut by the Fed. That probability has risen to 85% after plummeting earlier this month to only a 30% probability of a rate cut next month.

• Growth - we're expecting to finally receive the 3rd quarter GDP number tomorrow. The Atlanta Fed has stayed around a +4% projection for the past 3 weeks. There won't be any further comments this week from Fed speakers as they enter the blackout period before the December 10th FOMC meeting. Redbook Sales have remained above 5% for the past four months. If Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims remain relatively steady, the concerns regarding the labor market should stay somewhat muted. Economic stability along with another rate cut is likely bullish for equities.

______________________________________________________________________________

Disclosures

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The opinions expressed are those of the author, are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The decision to review or consider the purchase or sell of any security should not be undertaken without consideration of your personal financial information, investment objectives and risk tolerance with your financial professional.

Forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

Any market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

Past Performance does not guarantee future results.